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Chris Hargreaves

Just Words

Chris Hargreaves

SUBMISSION: THE COMMUNICATIONS LEGISLATION AMENDMENT (COMBATTING MISINFORMATION AND DISINFORMATION) BILL 2023 – HAVE YOUR SAY

August 20, 2023 by Chris Hargreaves

Introduction

In a country where elected officials can’t even agree on how many pages long the Uluru Statement from the Heart is, the Government should think twice before dropping a hammer on things it considers to be “misinformation” or “disinformation”.

Misinformation began when the serpent whispered to Eve in the garden and hasn’t slowed down since.

There is no real doubt that the rise of the internet and social media has inevitably amplified its reach.

However, the “Combatting Misinformation and Disinformation” Bill is a deeply concerning legislative overreach that effectively mandates the active censorship of Australian citizens.

The Bill is founded upon pandemic-specific research with woefully small cohorts that ought not to be the foundation for a political, ideological tilt towards silencing open discussion of issues in this country by its populace. The research itself fails to reach any conclusion that would support the implementation of this legislation, despite the apparent pretence otherwise.

The Bill itself seeks to force already powerful companies to take even more control and power over their users. This provides an easy foundation for obvious politically motivated weaponization – a use that any cursory glance at the events of recent years should confirm will readily be embraced.

Finally, the Bill offers a definition of “harm” that moves well beyond any possible sensible interpretation of that word. The subject matter of this purported “harm” is transparently political, overly broad, and fundamentally disinterested in protecting users from actual harm in its ordinary sense.

Any well-meaning government seeking to serve its citizens diligently should abhor this legislation. Government attention would best be focused on a self-reflective assessment of why trust in government and news media is at an all-time low. If it did so, it would more likely than not find that government mistrust is a function of the actions and statements of the Government itself and that embracing so-called misinformation in the manner sought to be addressed by this Bill is putting the cart before the horse. It is far more likely that those who ALREADY lack trust in the Government and mainstream media who seek out this information and spread it rather than the information being the cause of that.

The predictable and inevitable impact of this Bill and its implementation, if passed, will only be to lower institutional trust further, drive “misinformation” into other places where it cannot be scrutinized as easily, and foster further malcontent among those who already had it.

The Underlying Research

The research that supposedly forms the foundation for the Code previously, and now the Bill:

  1. Is underpowered;
  2. Is based on unproven assumptions;
  3. Fails to establish the causation that the Bill depends upon for efficacy;
  4. Demonstrates that the true concern is not really about “misinformation” as much as it is about “did not accept the Government position”.

The Research Cohort

To establish the supposed importance of this topic (which in turn notionally warranted the development of the Code of Conduct previously, and now justifies the implementation of the Bill), the ACMA report[1] substantially depends on an earlier N&MRC report.[2]

The N&MRC report itself was a:

  1. Quantitative study conducted via online survey on 2,659 people, half of whom had done a near identical survey previously; and
  2. Quantitative study conducted on merely 60 participants.

No obvious attempt (at least, not one that this mere mortal can find) was made in the N&MRC data to express the statistical significance of the outcomes.

The ACMA report, for its part, included reference to and reliance upon the “We are Social” report. Again, a quantitative report based on a tiny sample of data available, and subject to limitations that even the ACMA report accepted as being relevant.

So the Bill is a piece of legislation drafted in substantial reliance on a survey or interview conducted on something like 0.01% of the Australian population in terms of identifiable numbers.

If the topic was less serious, then such an approach might be acceptable.

But where the topic involves not just handing power, but mandating it, to large international tech companies who have a history of data theft, manipulation and agenda-driven decision-making, then surely someone should be enquiring whether the underlying report requires more questioning or broader research before it is given such authorization?

In terms of the qualitative study, the sample size is frankly so small for such an apparently important issue that the study barely qualifies as a pilot, and it is almost outrageous that any action at all is being considered in reliance on it. If I was to ask 60 people I know their views on a complex topic (let alone 26m, the number of people who will be impacted by this Bill), I am almost certainly going to receive a diverse range of views and not ones that be boiled down to something as trite as “true” or “not true”, even though that is fundamentally what this study has attempted to do.

Unproven Assumptions

The ACMA report from 2021 commences its Environmental Assessment with the dramatic declaration that “disinformation and misinformation has become an increasingly overt threat to Australia, and of growing concern to nearly all Australians”.

The source for this bold proposition is, bafflingly, an ABC news article about how we don’t trust Instagram influencers. The article does not discuss the “increasingly over threat” nor even start to consider what “threat” actually means. And, in truth, the fact that we don’t trust Instagram influencers is an indication that misinformation isn’t really a threat at all, and that the majority of people have mechanisms in place to automatically be sensitive to the potential for being misled by such people.

Is misinformation a “threat”? How? What precisely is meant by this word? How is it a threat to the entirety of Australia? The drama inherent in the proclamation is clear, but its backing is non-existent.

Surely these questions must be answered before government intervention on a topic is even warranted for consideration, let alone taking the dramatic and concerning step of encroaching on the ability of public discourse to occur?

No, instead the ACMA seems to have simply started from the underlying assumption that the mere existence of misinformation and the exposure of people to it is, in fact, a “threat” (whatever that means). That is neither proven nor is it demonstrably true.

What is demonstrably true, however, is that governments of the past who have attempted to control information to the extent now contended for have been inevitably governments we now consider to be fundamentally evil. The concept of controlling misinformation in the way being encouraged here (albeit through the hands of corporations that have no duty to the citizens of this country)) has been well tested through propaganda of the past and the results for the citizens of those countries have always been bad.

Causation

The underlying premise behind the Bill is this:

  1. People are exposed to “misinformation” (in this case, meaning information that does not accord with government messaging on a given topic);
  2. As a result, this lowers trust in a government;
  3. Therefore if we control (or force others to control) their exposure to the alleged misinformation, that will lower the amount of mistrust and avoid the “threat” (see above) that misinformation holds.

Nothing in either the ACMA report nor the N&MRC study begin to attempt to establish this type of causation, despite it being foundational to the Bill.

Defining Misinformation

The Bill itself defines misinformation broadly as set out in clause 7.

However, the ACMA report and underlying study give us slightly more insight into how the concept of misinformation is more likely to be treated as a matter of practical implementation.

What we see is that the idea of “misinformation” was not as much referred to a standard of objective truth, but rather to whether an individual agreed with the government’s position. Thus our questions were:

  1. I am confident that official medical guidelines and treatment for COVID-19 in my State or Territory
  2. COVID-19 vaccines that are approved by the health authorities in Australia are safe
  3. In most cases COVID-19 can be prevented or treated by simple remedies such as taking vitamins and supplements;
  4. The risks posed by COVID-19 are being exaggerated by people in power who want to take advantage of the situation
  5. Wearing a mask does not significantly reduce your risk of infection or spreading the virus.

Those who answered “wrong” (ie – different from the government line) were considered misinformed.

Of course, each question is so monumentally subjective that they are nearly useless for any probative value. Dozens of studies exist on the medical aspects of each question (with nuanced answers in each direction, sometimes supportive and other times not), none of which were considered or referred to in the study.

No, the apparent “right” answer to these questions cannot lie in subtly or nuance – what is right is, it seems, whatever the Government tells you (ignoring for a moment that different governments took different views on some issues, and so two people in different States could answer question 1 the same despite different recommendation in their State).

The concept of objective truth as it relates to disinformation or misinformation was not present in the study, at all. Nor is it present in the ACMA report, and that underlying philosophy (as we will see) has flowed through to the Bill.

The Bill

We have spent some time looking at the underlying basis for the Bill, because knowing where something has come from gives us a good idea of how it will be used. Now we turn to the language of the Bill itself.

Specifically:

  1. The wide and political definition of “harm” (and the lack of any definition for “serious”)
  2. The baffling decision to give legislative power to tech companies;
  3. The inevitable weaponization of the Bill.

“Serious Harm”

The Bill, as discussed above, is predicated on the unproven idea that misinformation itself constitutes a “threat”. Flowing from that, the Bill seeks only to combat misinformation or disinformation where the “provision of the content on the digital service is reasonably likely to cause or contribute to serious harm”.

What is Harm?

Which begs the immediate question – what is harm?

Apparently, in this Bill, harm is something that is far more wide ranging than any normal person would possibly define it. While the Bill follows the pattern of the Code previously drawn, its definition of harm is, itself, deeply concerning.

Of course, if we look to the dictionary, it tells us that “harm” when used as a noun means:

  1.  “physical injury, especially that which is deliberately inflicted”[3] or
  2. Physical or other injury or damage[4]

But harm, according to the Bill, means:

  • hatred against a group in Australian society on the basis of ethnicity, nationality, race, gender, sexual orientation, age, religion or physical or mental disability;
  • disruption of public order or society in Australia;
  • harm to the integrity of Australian democratic processes or of Commonwealth, State, Territory or local government institutions;
  • harm to the health of Australians;
  • harm to the Australian environment;
  • economic or financial harm to Australians, the Australian economy or a sector of the Australian economy.

First and foremost, using the word “harm” inside its own definition is nonsensical – four out of six of these defined terms say “harm means harm”. Does the word “harm” in sub-clause (c) mean the defined term harm, or the ordinary dictionary definition of harm? The former would make no sense, and simply send us on a neverending roundabout of the same defined term being used to explain itself. The latter defeats the purpose of defining “harm” in the first place, and given the requirement for physical injury also makes no sense.

So right from the outset we have a core drafting problem with the definition.

Given the definition of “harm” is absolutely critical to the foundation of the Bill and its impact, it is fundamentally important to define it properly, in a way that makes sense. The drafters have failed to do that, and that isn’t even the biggest problem.

Everything is Harm

Even if we can make sense of the defined term at all, it seems that the drafters have attempted to capture basically everything in the definition of harm.

The topics identified in the defined term “harm” range so widely that arguably any discussion on any topic of any kind, ever, will ultimately fall within one of the categories.

And if nothing else seems to apply, you can feasibly rely on the stated concern about harm to the category of “disruption of society in Australia”, whatever that means.

What is Serious?

Ah, but surely we are protected from trivial implementations of this mandated Code by the defined term misinformation requiring a threshold of “serious” harm?

No, we’re not.

Serious, an undefined term, is near impossible to quantify, especially when apparently something can apparently cause “serious” harm to “society in Australia”.

If I lose, or could lose, $10 is that serious harm to my finances? What if my unemployed friend who has $15 total in his bank account loses $10 – is that serious?

What about $100? Or $1000?

What if a collection of 1,000 people each lose $10 – is that serious, even though each of them is completely fine?

If someone gets upset because of something they read, is that harm? What if they get REALLY REALLY upset?

What is serious is a subjective term, and applying it meaningfully to the word “harm” as it is used in this Bill is practically impossible. It is open to wide ranging interpretation, and will be subject to the whim of the platform in question and the regulator that notionally monitors them.

Caused or Contributed To

Finally, our definition of misinformation (and disinformation) require the content in question to “cause or contribute to” serious harm.

The children’s story “Who Sank the Boat” by Pam Allen illustrates the principle well enough. After the pig, the cow, the donkey and the sheep all alight on the vessel in question, it remains afloat.

And yet the tiny mouse hops in, and the boat sinks.

Did the mouse “cause” the boat to sink? Probably not.

Did the mouse “contribute” to the boat sinking? Yes.

The threshold of “contributed to” is such a low one that it will be used to capture every single incidence of content imaginable, irrespective of its reach or impact.

The Terms are All Encompassing

Based on these poorly defined terms, the situation the Bill is setting up is that any view expressed on social media that does not accord with the government view (which, as we have seen, will inevitably be used as the yardstick of what constitutes misinformation irrespective of the language used in the Bill itself) on a given topic will be captured by the legislation.

Untrustable Tech Companies

The underlying research founded its findings on concepts that:

  1. government was trustworthy;
  2. authorized news was trustworthy (which is ironic given that media outlets regularly report completely opposite things);
  3. news on social media was not trustworthy.

So it is baffling that the Government is prepared to entrust to technology companies the process of being arbiters of the concept of information and misinformation.

This is despite the fact that these same companies have a demonstrated history of censoring information that did not accord with their corporate political alignment.

One classic example is the Hunter Biden laptop – a news story that was demonstrably true, and has since been accepted as such, but was censored across the board by technology companies in a critical time leading up to the 2020 United States presidential election.

No justification has been given for how or why these companies are being empowered in this way.

The Weaponisation of the Bill

The definition of “harm” hits all the relevant debated political topics that exist now and will likely exist into the foreseeable future.

Tech companies have a demonstrated history of political bias in one direction or another.

Governments have made it clear, and this Bill seeks to legislate, that government intervention and direction about what Tech companies who own these platforms should and should not allow to be published is acceptable.

Government, of course, is exempt from the operation of the Bill – though it’s not clear how that can be a functional exemption in circumstances where different individuals within Government could well hold different views on the relevant topics covered by “harm”.

It is, however, inevitable that the tools and codes set up by these companies, or if not those set up by the Government of the day[5], will be utilized to advance a political agenda. Already we have seen this occurring (together with the relevant platforms’ willingness to cooperate) in the United States.[6]

This leads us to an inevitable problem – the changing nature of what constitutes misinformation.

Today’s Misinformation is Tomorrow’s Fact

Oceania has always been at war with Eastasia.

We learn things over time. As a result, our views can change. Things we understood to be true in the past we might now consider to be false. That is the nature of things.

For a few small examples:

  • From the 1930s to the 1950s, tobacco brands recruited medical professionals to spruik their particular brand of cigarettes to patients and buyers generally as being entirely fine for you medically. We now understand that was a bad idea.
  • During the pandemic it was widely stated by Governments of Australia, and some News outlets, as definitive fact, that the COVID-19 vaccines developed in 2020/21 would prevent you from catching the virus. That was not true as we now understand it.
  • Subsequently, it was stated that while it would not prevent you getting the virus, it would prevent you spreading it. This, at least in part, was used as the foundation for many of the restrictions faced by people in this country during that time. That was also not true as we now understand it.

The Bill, however, seeks to declare an absolute truth at a point in time and require enforcement and protection of it. It will inevitably be used to silence or prevent public questioning, interrogation or even contrary hypotheses about the topic in question.

And yet, progression in studies and “truth” have only ever occurred through such questioning that went against the status quo.

Things that people have taken absolutely for granted at a given point in time are now considered preposterous by the majority of people on the planet.

What happens to those credible individuals who share contradictory information that later turns out to be true?

That’s not clear. In the meantime, hopefully their careers and businesses have survived the implementation of the “code” by the relevant tech company in question.

Forceful Subjugation Decreases Trust

The reason that public trust of Government is low is because the Government of the day has not demonstrated itself to be trustworthy.

That’s the simple truth.

Every time government spin takes priority over frankness and candour, forceful positions take priority over reasoned discourse, and name-calling takes priority over issues – trust decreases even further.

Sadly, however, those things now form the mainstay of government communications. Spin over candour, force over reason, names over issues.

If the Government wishes to increase public trust, and in doing so offer a real solution to its concerns about “misinformation and disinformation”, then it should look harder at itself in the mirror, put more effort into becoming a trustworthy institution, and worry less about tactics to silence the voices of its own population.


[1] A report to government on the adequacy of digital platforms’ disinformation and news quality measures – June 2021

[2] Park, S., McCallum, K., Lee, J., Holland, K., McGuinness, K., Fisher, C. & John, E. (2022). Covid-19: Australian News & Misinformation Longitudinal Study. Canberra: News & Media Research Centre.

[3] OxfordLanguages online retrieved 20/8/23

[4] Cambridge online retrieved 20/8/23

[5] Bearing in mind the Bill allows the ACMA to inflict a Code if one is not implemented or is not acceptable

[6] https://apnews.com/article/social-media-protected-speech-lawsuit-injunction-148c1cd43f88a0284d5a3c53fd333727

Filed Under: Politics

Comparing Vaccines with Seatbelts

November 12, 2021 by Chris Hargreaves

Have you seen this conversation recently?

“Hey Government – basically coercing people to get a vaccine is wrong and infringes on our personal freedoms.”

“Oh you stupid anti-vax conspiracy theorist psyco – you already get forced to do things like wear a seatbelt, so stop whining about freedom and get with the program.”

Because, it seems to some, injecting drugs into yourself and wearing a seatbelt are basically the same thing.

But really the tension here isn’t about seatbelts or vaccines – it’s an idealogical difference.

How Much Interference is Too Much?

Underpinning the topic is a fundamental disagreement about areas and degree that government (or anyone else for that matter) should reasonably be allowed to interfere in our day to day lives without our objection.

There are a large number of people at the moment who spend considerable time and energy pointing out what’s wrong with everybody. They believe that their worldviews are correct, and anybody who doesn’t agree should be censored. These also tend to be the same people who are fairly content with government intervention in any area that they agree with.

I can’t help but wonder, though, whether they’d be as delighted with government intervention in an area they didn’t agree with. Or perhaps intervention from a government that wasn’t from their political persuasion.

That said I don’t need to wonder too much, because we can kind of just see it in action, can’t we? When the government you agree with is in power, you’re in favour of them intervening and telling people what to do/think, because you mostly agree with it.

And, of course, when the government you don’t agree with is in power, they should keep their noses out of your business.

I’m sure you can hunt down the footage of the democratic party condemning Trump’s fast-tracked vaccine program as unsafe and speculative and saying they would never take it. Yes – the same people now telling you that the same vaccine is a must.

Bit odd though, don’t you think? Because surely a sound and honest political ideology that embraces any kind of democracy needs to withstand a different government being in power? Surely you can’t believe one thing when your “team” is in and something else when the other team is in?

And Yet…

So we get this unusual situation where very similar topics end up with different answers depending what side of the political fence you sit on.

That’s why requiring someone to have ID to vote is fundamentally racist and should be opposed, but requiring that same person to have a vaccine ID to obtain goods and services is perfectly fine.

It’s also why it’s awful and objectionable to prohibit a women from making any decision she might see fit about an unborn child because it’s her body and her choice, but completely fine to tell that same woman she has to inject herself with a drug if she wants to work for a living.

Why? Because politics, that’s why.

Now to those who hold these views, they see no incompatibility because these are different areas of concern. This is why I mentioned that it’s not just about the extent of control exercised, it’s the area in which it is exercised that also factors in to how much we care.

We each have those areas, those topics, and those ideals which we tend to feel more fervour in defence of than others. These are the areas we are more likely to want more or less intervention.

I, for example, don’t really care that much about the people clamping down on the rules for Monster Truck rallies, but care a great deal about freedom of speech. There will be some areas of government intervention that I consider carefully, and others I just let sail by.

Seatbelts and Vaccines

So back to our seatbelts then.

Some people are fairly nonchalant about pharmaceutical medication. To them, they will happily eat, drink, insert or be jabbed with anything they are told to without question. Even if that isn’t the case, perhaps here they have decided that taking the jab as many times as required is a no-brainer, is completely safe, and ultimately the responsible thing to do. For them the seatbelt analogy is pretty close – it’s safe and protects you from harm, has little or no chance of adverse effects, and is ultimately a reasonable constraint placed on your freedom.

But others want to know more information, see more reliable data, and don’t like to get a drug just because someone you don’t know said you should (governments, after all, are not our usual source of sound medical information). And even if all of that data lands in favour, they still might just not like the idea of it because nobody can tell them what, if any, long term effects might exist. For them the analogy is preposterous.

Objectively, of course, we can’t pretend that being forced to get injected with a drug with unknown long term effects and being forced to temporarily gently restrain your body with a bit of cloth stuff are even vaguely the same thing. It’s a poor objective analogy.

At best it is a simplistic way of pointing out that governments enforce constraints on our “freedoms” all the time in a variety of ways and we usually don’t complain that much. This is true – but it’s not a reason that we should never object to anything.

At which point the real question each of us is now answering is this: where is the line we don’t think the Government should cross?

Where is the Line?

So let’s say you’re OK with things as they are. You’re OK with being tracked wherever you go. You’re OK with being told to wear a mask. You’re OK with the government telling you when you can and cannot leave your house, and what places you can and cannot go to, and who you can or cannot be with at a given time. You’re also OK with government dictated mandates for people to get vaccines. Because, after all, it’s a pandemic and we’re “all in it together” – right?

So where, exactly, is your line?

What needs to be proposed, discussed, legislated or implemented for you to stop and think “ah OK, that one seems a bit of an over-reach”?

Because history here teaches us a fairly important lesson: governments don’t generally give back power once they have it. In fact governments LOVE telling people what to do and how to do it. It tends to work the opposite way – one layer of government power leads to another, then another, then another.

The fact that we have been in a “state of emergency” for nearly 2 years now with its associated emergency powers should tell you just how much the government loves holding on to the powers that it is presently enjoying.

And if that doesn’t do it, take a look at Victoria where the premier would like to make it EASIER to use those powers, whenever he and the minister decide they should, without any serious potential for review or fetter.

So where is your line?

My view is pretty straightforward. I believe the Government should exercise as little control as possible to maintain peace and good order in society.

Unfortunately it seems to me that by the time many people realise their line has been crossed it will be so far behind them they won’t even be able to see it anymore.

Filed Under: Politics

Vaccine Mandates Don’t Go Far Enough

October 27, 2021 by Chris Hargreaves

At the end of the day, you’ve gotta trust someone, right?

And for me – I’m going all in and trusting the governments of this country to make all the best decisions for my life and yours. Even when they disagree – I’ll just trust them all. And if the government changes and all the decisions reverse themselves – I’m ok with that.

That’s why I think vaccine mandates aren’t going far enough (oh sorry I forgot – nobody is being forced to get a vaccine, you just can’t work or support your families unless you do).

I mean, why only entrust our immune system COVID-19 response to the government? Why not just entrust everything to them?

So personally I think that all our health choices should be made by the government, based on the advice of whoever happens to be in charge that day.

Think of how great it would be! The government could tell the grocery stores what they should sell me to eat that day, and I could just buy it. So many issues about deciding what meal to cook, where to get ingredients and personal dietry requirements could fade away. The government chefs could come up with a healthy, balanced diet that is best for everyone. We can then simply line up and get those meals provided to us.

Naturally people who are overweight could then be forced to get surgery and take appropriate medications to suppress their apetites. After all, if they are overweight they might not be contributing enough to the economy and could place a drain on our already over-run medical system. We’ll also need a list of other medical problems that cost the country too much, or are contagious – people with these should probably just be forcibly treated, isolated from others or euthanised, but I’ll go with whatever the government says on that one.

But health is just one part of our lives.

The government should also definitely tell me what to wear. I mean, if you’ve met me you probably know that my sense of style is a little lacking. I personally believe the only real solution is that somebody objective should dictate my clothing choices each day. So each day I can tune in to the government podcast and they can tell me and you what to wear.

This, in turn, will reduce bullying and discrimination. If we all wear the same thing as each other, nobody can be singled out or teased. Naturally this will also make the jobs of designers and textile manufacturers much more simple, and they can devote their energies to mass-production of government approved clothing.

Beyond that I’m confident the government should control what I spend my money on. I mean, not just taxes but everything. I might spend my money on bad things or make choices to buy things that aren’t good for others around me. To avoid this, I think the government should receive my pay cheque each week and supply me with the things I need. Which leads me to…

Wages. It’s quite unfair that my wages are determined by my training, talent and the value I bring to the market. It’s also unfair that my employers should have any say in what I get paid – I mean, what if they don’t like me or think that I’m not contributing? They might decide not to pay me the fair sums of money that I deserve. It’s also pretty unfair that I with my paltry 20 years of training and experience should be paid more than someone who hasn’t decided to work or study for themselves. They should be entitled to precisely the same as me and it’s quite unfair if they have to live with less means.

The solution is clear though – the government should set a single, universal income for everyone. They can tell us how many hours to work and when we should have a break to make sure we’re looking after ourselves. That should nearly completely eliminate discrimination of all kinds. It does create an issue though. While the government can supply our food and clothing, we still have different housing.

So obviously the government should supply identical housing for all families, irrespective of their size. Those with larger pieces of land will have to divide it into smaller pieces to accomodate those with no land, or smaller land.

Now these things are very practical and they will fix almost all of our problems, but there are a few things still to address.

Firstly I think it’s important the government tell me what I should believe at a spiritual level. After all, people having different beliefs about God is causing all sorts of friction and sometimes upsets others. If the government can tell us who God is and how we should practice our religions, I think that’s the only fair way to address these kinds of disagreements.

Next the government should definitely (keep) telling me what words are OK to use and which ones aren’t. There should probably just be a published list each day when I’m finding out what to wear so I can check how I should be speaking as well.

Finally I think there should be some kind of confession/re-education system for those who don’t embrace the system. Fines and jail time are OK, but really we just want to fix people so they function properly.

Most people can be re-trained by suitably qualified staff and appropriate resourcing. We can make a large facility where people can be taken until they have learned how to be better human beings and embrace the government program. That way if we hear someone say something wrong, get upset by somebody else or see someone who is breaking the rules, we can call a number and ensure they they are re-educated.

Drastic times call for drastic measures – and frankly this is the only way we can genuinely be a free and democratic society.

Filed Under: Social

Fact Check – COVID Death Statistics in Australia

October 20, 2021 by Chris Hargreaves

I read today in this News Dot Com article the assertion that:

Covid-19 has a mortality rate of 1.06 per cent in Australia. Around 1,400 Aussies are currently in hospital with the virus, including 288 people in Intensive Care Units across the country.

And since it seems that basically anyone can be a fact-checker these days, I thought I’d give it a crack.

My conclusion:

Misleading

Let’s dig in.

The Australian Health site here keeps fairly up to date statistics of COVID events, including “cases” and deaths.

Here is a snapshot of the total numbers around the country as I type this article on 20 October 2021:

So, with a little maths we can see that this does in fact demonstrate a total mortality rate of 1.06%.

Therefore we can give our newsy friends a big green tick, because technically speaking they managed to divide the correct numbers by the other correct numbers.

However – this isn’t the number we should be looking at, because it’s simply not granular enough.

First – How COVID Deaths are Reported in Australia

When COVID first popped up, each state had its own ways of reporting deaths.

The result is that the statistics were about as reliable as promises made in the lead up to an election. In some cases we had people dying in motorcycle accidents reported as COVID deaths, which is obviously stupid.

Have those numbers been removed from these? Who knows, since apparently we just decided to gloss over that bit.

What I can tell you though is that the health site currently says that it counts something as a COVID death:

As per the COVID-19 national guidelines, a COVID-19 death is defined for surveillance purposes as a death in a probable or confirmed COVID-19 case, unless there is a clear alternative cause of death that cannot be related to COVID19 (e.g. trauma). There should be no period of complete recovery from COVID-19 between illness and death. Where a Coroner’s report is available, these findings are to be observed.

Let’s interpret this for a moment. A death counts as a COVID death if:

  • the person had COVID19; and
  • there is no clear alternative cause of death.

This is what I like to call a “low bar”.

Basically if we don’t bother trying to find out that something else killed a person, then it was COVID.

And since we don’t seem to bother actually running tests for anything else these days (like the flu, for example) the chances of us finding a clear alternative cause of death are pretty slim.

The result here is that attributing a death to COVID is the default position. The statistics, therefore, represent the highest possible death rate of COVID and not a considered reflection on the actual cause of death.

It’s also probably fun to point out here that the extreme difference between how easy it is for something to be declared a COVID death, and how hard it is for something to be identified as an adverse reaction to the COVID vaccine (don’t worry – I’ll fact check myself on that statement at some point).

Conclusion – the result is that declaring COVID to have a mortality rate of 1.06% based on these figures is inherently misleading. At best we can declarea COVID19 to have an absolute maximum mortality rate of 1.06% based on these figures – because on closer reflection and testing the number would only ever go down.

Next – Age Matters

Now the rubber really hits the road, because as a 40 (shock) year old man I’m not that interested in overall statistics – I’m more interested in whether I’m going to die or not (I know – pretty selfish).

I’m also interested in my kids, because of course we’re all freaking out about the health and safety of our kids at the moment.

So let’s look at the age breakup of cases and deaths.

For reasons that I shan’t speculate on, these aren’t actually in a helpful single table, but rather spread across two tables. Here are two pictures (the first cases, the second deaths – broken up by age and gender) as at 20 October 2021.

OK so now I grab my calculator and we find the following mortality rates by age:

  • 0-9 age bracket – ZERO percent mortality rate
  • 10-19 age bracket – 0.017% mortality
  • 20-29 age bracket – 0.0287% mortality
  • 30-39 age bracket – 0.0432% mortality
  • 40-49 age bracket – 0.166% mortality
  • 50-59 age bracket – 0.679% mortality
  • 60-69 age bracket – 1.8% mortality
  • 70-79 age bracket – 6.645% mortality
  • 80-89 age bracket – 18.6% mortality
  • 90+ age bracket – 30.77% mortality.

Phew! That was a lot of maths – I think I need a rest.

Now here’s the thing – the stats obviously go up right on the 60 age bracket – EVERYTHING under that is less than the 1.06% number being trotted out.

And where only around 15% of the population is over the age of 65, this is where it gets misleading.

MOST people reading that statistic of 1.06% do NOT have that mortality chance, even on these openly maxxed out death statistics.

Which leads to…

Outliers

In my view, including the 80+ age bracket statistics in the generally published figures is manifestly misleading. That data heavily skews the statistics on mortality.

I could do some maths to support this, but I did enough maths earlier.

It’s generally accepted that the elderly are more vulnerable to basically everything. We can add to that the fact that many elderly are in aged care, where spread of disease and generally poor nutrition, conditions and care amount to significantly different health factors than those NOT in aged care.

Let’s be clear: 766 out of 1558 deaths currently reported occured WITHIN RESIDENTIAL AGED CARE. That’s just a smidgen under 50% of the reported COVID deaths.

But we’re including those in data related to the general population, and using that as part of our decision making which impacts those not in aged care – despite it being a unique combination of factors not found anywhere else.

So telling me that I have a 1% chance of dying from something when that’s 8x what the actual data shows and includes those outlying figures, is frankly just an exercise in scaremongering.

And Lastly… Where are the Co-Morbidities?

By this point most people know that pre-existing conditions have a massive impact on how COVID affects people.

Have you noticed what’s happened though? We don’t even mention it anymore. The data isn’t that easy to find, and if it is it’s buried in a dense and nearly impossible to read piece of medical literature. Certainly politicians aren’t talking about it, and news outlets aren’t reporting on it.

Obesity is the obvious one which has a dramatic impact on outcomes, although apparently it’s not PC to mention that.

So here’s an interesting and different one for you – this paper here based on CDC data suggests that anxiety was (at the time at least) running a close second in terms of increasing bad outcomes from COVID.

So let’s be clear:

  • Co-morbidities have a massive impact on COVID19 outcomes;
  • Anxiety is a major co-morbidity that increases your chance of dying from COVID; and
  • The news and politicians of the day are literally telling you you’re going to die every morning, locking down the states on a whim (unless it’s football) and crushing small business under their emergency-powered-boot.
  • This increases your anxiety levels, because your life sucks (how about a 7-day snap lockdown that lasts for 77 days, anyone?)
  • Which makes you more vulnerable to adverse consequences of COVID.

Happy days.

Wrapping Up.

I hope you enjoyed my first attempt at a fact check.

My conclusion is that the assertion of a 1.06% morbidity from COVID-19 is strictly correct but entirely misleading.

Have a nice day.

Filed Under: Social

The NRL Final – A Majestic Stroke of Hypocrisy

October 4, 2021 by Chris Hargreaves

So on 3 October we allowed 39,000 people to go into a stadium to watch grown men throw a ball and tackle each other.

This was, of course, yet another straw on the poor old hypocritical camel’s back as it strains to keep itself moving from A to B.

It solidifies in our minds that our glorious leaders (may their hair never fall out) either:

  • don’t actually believe COVID is dangerous;
  • don’t care whether their constituents die; or
  • are more stupid than we thought.

None of these is a particularly attractive situation.

There are a few staggering elements here.

First, that our chief medical officer in Queensland managed to keep a straight face while declaring that holding the event should probably be fine from a health perspective. This in itself deserves an award nomination of some kind.

What’s that you say? 39,000 people into a stadium is fine? But I can’t invite all my relatives to my wedding, let alone any friends – that’s not fine. Nor if I die from the sheer stupidity of the governments around the world will that many people be able to attend my funeral to laugh at my music selections. If I go to the office (lol) then I have to wear a mask, unless I seal myself in the room where I am unable to hear the news and feel compelled to write articles like this one.

But in NRL we trust, and we have absolute confidence that the sensible and law-abiding citizens will definitely use all necessary measures to protect themselves and others from the virus of doom*

*bearing in mind that COVID can only get you when you’re standing up, so you don’t need to wear a mask if you’re sitting down. And masks definitely work anyway.

But really, we’re confident that even though we can’t go to a hairdresser without wearing a mask nowadays, the enormous pile of complete strangers who drink beer a lot will definitely keep the social distancing rules at a rugby match, right?

Nothing to see here. COVID doesn’t like sport.

Now for the last 18 months or more we’ve had a fascinating piece of government information pushed down our thoats, ears and eyes – that COVID is a death dealing crazy maniac of a virus that will definitely destroy life as we know it.

This has been used to justify insanely over-the-top reactions, rules, regulations and orders requiring us not to visit our elderly relatives, see each other, embrace one another at all, turn up to work, take our kids to school (ok – not me, but other people), and more recently it’s been seen as a justification to force millions of people into the position of having to inject a drug repeatedly into their bodies or lose their jobs.

And yet – this.

Let’s be honest – this was a national sport-induced sedative. Because Australia is… Australia – cancelling the NRL grand final would have tipped some sports-loving Aussies over the edge.

It’s the slightly more gentile equivalent of chucking a guilotine at the city gates – designed to pacify the people, minimise dissention, and ensure compliance.

There is no way of reconciling this with the rhetoric of the last 18 months.

Which can really only lead to this conclusion – the trumped up government fascade of being actually concerned for our wellbeing is a colossal lie.

Or, if you prefer another angle, perhaps COVID isn’t the doomsday device that the powers-that-be have been declaring it as all this time.

Filed Under: Social

How Facts Work Now

July 16, 2021 by Chris Hargreaves

As someone who has a keen interest in knowing what the heck is actually true, you can probably imagine how hilarious the last few years have been.

Fortunately, though, I now understand that “true” is being actively redefined to mean “acceptable”. You see, using this handsome definition, what counts as “true” or #fakenews doesn’t need to depend on the absolute facts – it only needs to align with the opinion of people more important than us, so that they can tell us what is true today.

Does it matter if what they tell us is true today is different from what they told us was true yesterday? Nah.

What DOES matter though is that we absolutely embrace the narrative of the day, don’t discuss how that might possibly be incorrect, and definitely apply no independent thought to anything that might contradict what is “true” now. But if we slip up and do accidentally forget what the facts are today, it’s OK because the people who run the show will happily silence us and ensure that nothing we say could possibly be read by others.

History tells us, of course, that this kind of system absolutely works fine.

With this bold new appreciation in tow, I thought I’d demonstrate my commitment to this excellent cause and to our true-declaring overlords, and explain how we can learn to properly navigate just a few topics that have come up in recent times.*

* if you feel like these particular topics are one-sided, that’s because they are. Fear not, I can just as happily write a similar article from the other side of the political fence, I just didn’t do that on this occasion.

Herd Immunity

If you haven’t heard the phrase “herd immunity” recently, then the chances are you’re not reading this article either.

For this one we can reach out to our overlords at the World Health Organization, and whoever writes their website copy.

So, the facts between the invention of the phrase and very recently were that “herd immunity” means something like this:

Yes – this is the previous WHO definition

But that’s old news now, and is no longer true. For reasons which I’m 100% sure have nothing to do with an agenda to push everyone to get vaccines, the definition was updated in the second half of 2020 (um… citations for why don’t matter, remember?) to be:

‘Herd immunity’, also known as ‘population immunity’, is a concept used for vaccination, in which a population can be protected from a certain virus if a threshold of vaccination is reached. Herd immunity is achieved by protecting people from a virus, not by exposing them to it.

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/question-and-answers-hub/q-a-detail/herd-immunity-lockdowns-and-covid-19

Don’t worry though, I’m sure a “Doctor” or an “Expert” will be able to confirm via an upcoming news cycle if you are concerned that this updated definition is completely appropriate and proven by science. Other “doctors” and “experts” might say different things, but don’t believe them because I didn’t capitalise their titles.

So just to be clear, the previous “fact” that was absolutely fine to believe was that herd immunity included those who gained immunity through exposure.

But that’s not the fact anymore – so don’t say that.

Trump Tear-Gassing People for a Photo Op

The orange man is bad, OK? So if we hear something bad about him, it’s almost certainly true.

In this case, in around June 2020 Trump cruelly directed park police to drive out peaceful protesters and throw tear-gas at them, so that he could get a photo-op outside a church holding an upside down bible. What a meany, amiright?

And that was completely, absolutely and unequivocally true…

…until about June 2021, when it became not true. From that point what became true is that in response to the “peaceful” protesters causing injury to multiple officers and damage to federal property, the US Park Police organised (without reference to Trump) to mobilize and clear the not-really-peaceful protesters from the area.

So if you voted against Trump because of that incident (which seems unlikely) then you were still 100% ok to do so without any cognitive dissonance, because at the time it was true.

The Wuhan Lab

COVID was absolutely, definitely and uneqvoically NOT something that was released (accidentally or otherwise) from a laboratory in Wuhan, China. Got it?

In fact, if you think that it was, then you are a crazy nut-job, a conspiracy theorist and you repeatedly sharing disinformation about this should get you banned from Twitter and Facebook. We also know it to be crazy because 27 scientists (count ’em – 27!) published a statement on February 19 2020 telling us it was crazy. It’s completely irrelevant that the statement was drafted by Peter Daszak, president of EcoHealth Alliance, which has a commercial relationship with the Wuhan Institute of Virology funded by US government grants.

Most notably, however, it’s important to remember that Orange Man Bad, and because Trump expressed a view that the virus came from a lab in Wuhan, it’s simple logic to know that must be a lie. That combined with the extremely extensive and amazing work of the WHO investigation should convince even the most stalwart of objectioners.

So it was clear and entirely proper for the US Government, Twitter and Facebook to completely shut down any suggestion of any kind that the virus came from a lab.

At least, until about June 2021, when it became entirely possible that the virus leaked from a lab in Wuhan. You see, what we need to understand is that while social media (based on WHO guidance) censored and banned people left, right and centre from expressing any view suggesting that Covid came from a lab, it was always (always) the case that all theories were still being investigated and they definitely did NOT say that the lab-leak theory was completely false.

So just to be clear:

  • Before June 2021 it was completely false misinformation spread by lunatics that COVID might have leaked from a lab. Those people were rightly banned from social media, called various names quite appropriately and should be ashamed of themselves.
  • From June 2021 and for the time being, it’s perfectly OK to speculate that perhaps COVID came from a lab, because the investigation is ongoing and we don’t have a definitive answer yet.
  • Dr Fauci definitely did not know about gain-of-function research being conducted at the Wuhan Institute of Virology at the time he dismissively waived off suggestions the virus came from the lab. Or if he did it doesn’t matter and you just don’t understand things, OK?

Getting Sick from COVID

In a speech in March 2020, the Prime Minister said:

  • “But the truth is that while many people will contract this virus that it’s clear, just as people get the flu each year, it is a more severe condition than the flu, but for the vast majority, as I said last week, for the majority, around 8 in 10 is our advice, it will be a mild illness and it will pass”

So, to demonstrate, my home state of Queensland has had 1752 cases of COVID reported, with 7 deaths representing around a 0.4% mortality rate.

NSW has had 6,618 reported cases with 56 deaths, representing a 0.85% mortality rate. It’s a bit higher, but don’t worry – we turned NSW off for a while so it should be OK.

Other states are similar, although in fairness Victoria does drag the mortality statistics up. However, this is a good opportunity to demonstrate how selectively presenting some facts but not others can be used to support a position.

So in order to avoid the obvious imminent death of everyone, it’s important that we tell 5.2million people in Queensland to wear masks (that definitely work to protect us – although the specifics depend on whether you ask the CDC or the WHO, and which historical date you ask them about it) when 3 cases are found to exist, compel everyone to stay home if we find any community transmission at all, and as a nation administer 22,388,993 tests to ensure that we don’t catch this most-of-the-time mild disease. It’s also important that nobody dances – dancing is out, OK?

On the up-side, apparently we have basically eradicated influenza type A from our lives. Isn’t that great? You see, in the No 12, 2019 edition of the Influenza Surveillance Report, the good people at the Department of Health noted that to date in that calendar year there had been 298,120 notifications of laboratory-confirmed influenza. Wow, lots right? But I’m happy to tell you that in 2021 in the year to date (bearing in mind we’re not at the end of the flu season yet) we have only reported 388 cases of the flu. Go us! I mean it’s like the flu just disappeared or something.

Now I have to admit that distilling what is true here did my head in a bit, but here’s my best crack at trying to believe what I’m told to believe:

  • COVID-19, for most people, “is a mild illness and it will pass” according to the PM who, as you’d expect, was probably parroting some medical person; but
  • COVID-19 is also so serious and dangerous that if there is any chance you might possibly have it you should get tested (if you don’t understand how this point marries with the last one, you’re not trying hard enough);
  • It’s important that in response to a mild illess that will pass we, as a country, declare a state of emergency and hand power to a single non-elected medical official in each State who can then tell us all what we may or may not do each day, while the premiers provide us with a neverending stream of updated statistics with large numbers so that news outlets can cling desparately to the idea that they have something relevant to publish each day.
  • It’s OK though, because politicians are renowned for giving back power quickly once they have had a taste of it. They are definitely not investigating opportunities to give themselves these powers indefinitely.

The best part is, if I’m made a mistake then I don’t have to worry – I’m confident the fact-checkers will point it out and I’ll know then what to believe. If not I can always check myself in to the ministry of truth for some re-education.

Filed Under: Social

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